empty
04.04.2024 02:38 PM
U.S. Dollar Index: trading scenarios on April 4, 2024

This image is no longer relevant

On Thursday, the market observes somewhat contradictory dynamics of the dollar. It weakens in the DXY index, which primarily consists of the euro, but strengthens against safe-haven assets—the yen, franc, and gold.

At the same time, market participants who are in active short positions on the dollar may want to pay attention to the dynamics of U.S. government bond yields, which continue to rise.

This image is no longer relevant

From a technical point of view, the dollar index (CFD #USDX in the MT4 terminal) remains in a bullish market zone, medium-term—above the support level of 103.75 (200 EMA on the daily chart), long-term—above the key support level of 100.90 (200 EMA on the weekly chart).

Therefore, long positions on the dollar index remain preferable for now.

A signal for new purchases could be the breakout of the important short-term resistance level of 104.36 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart).

In case of a decrease to the support levels of 103.92 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart) and 103.75 (200 EMA, 144 EMA on the daily chart), it is possible to place pending limit orders for purchase with stops below the 103.60 mark.

This image is no longer relevant

In an alternative scenario, after the confirmed breakout of the support level at 103.75, the price may deepen into the downward channel on the weekly chart, with targets at support levels of 102.60 and 102.00 (144 EMA on the weekly chart).

The breakout of the key support level of 100.90 (200 EMA on the weekly chart) will bring the DXY into the long-term bear market zone. The bullish trend of the dollar will be broken.

This scenario may gain momentum if tomorrow's U.S. Labor Department report turns out to be significantly weaker than forecasted. Further dynamics of the dollar and its DXY index will largely depend on the fundamental background and the actions of the Federal Reserve.

Support levels: 104.10, 104.00, 103.92, 103.75, 103.00, 102.60, 102.00, 101.00, 100.90, 100.00

Resistance levels: 104.36, 104.95, 105.00, 106.00, 106.80, 107.00, 107.30

Trading Scenarios

Main scenario: BuyStop 104.40. Stop-Loss 103.60. Targets 104.95, 105.00, 106.00, 106.80, 107.00, 107.30

Alternative scenario: SellStop 103.60. Stop-Loss 104.10. Targets 103.00, 102.60, 102.00, 101.00, 100.90, 100.00

"Targets" correspond to support/resistance levels. This also does not mean that they will necessarily be reached, but they can serve as a guideline for planning and placing your trading positions.

Jurij Tolin,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on May 16? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Thursday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair showed minimal upward movement; however, the 5-minute timeframe indicates this was largely a sideways move

Paolo Greco 06:17 2025-05-16 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on May 16? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Thursday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair traded in both directions throughout Thursday. The macroeconomic background was rich, but it had no decisive impact

Paolo Greco 06:17 2025-05-16 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on May 16: The Pound Decided to Take a Break

On Thursday, the GBP/USD currency pair traded strictly sideways with low volatility. Despite a busy macroeconomic calendar, the market ignored most of the data, just as anticipated

Paolo Greco 03:54 2025-05-16 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on May 16: The Market Has Once Again Confirmed the Obvious

On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair showed only one thing—a complete unwillingness to move. We observed sideways movement throughout the day despite a fairly packed macroeconomic calendar. However, as mentioned

Paolo Greco 03:54 2025-05-16 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on May 15? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Wednesday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement throughout Wednesday, despite the absence of any specific fundamental reasons. The day before, a U.S

Paolo Greco 06:21 2025-05-15 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on May 15? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Wednesday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair experienced upward movement for approximately half of Wednesday. The latest "surge" in the euro was particularly "impressive," although

Paolo Greco 06:21 2025-05-15 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on May 15: The Roller Coaster Begins

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued trading with an upward bias for some time, but it resumed its decline in the afternoon. From our perspective, the U.S. dollar

Paolo Greco 03:41 2025-05-15 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on May 15: Heading Down Again or Waiting for Trump?

The EUR/USD currency pair continued upward movement on Wednesday, but only briefly. In the afternoon, the euro started to decline, despite the lack of macroeconomic factors supporting such moves. Donald

Paolo Greco 03:41 2025-05-15 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on May 14? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Tuesday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair experienced significant growth, despite no clear catalyst behind it. On Monday, the dollar rose on specific grounds

Paolo Greco 06:11 2025-05-14 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on May 14? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Tuesday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair nearly fully recovered from Monday's decline. As reality has shown, strong reasons are required

Paolo Greco 06:11 2025-05-14 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.