empty
03.03.2025 02:40 PM
Oil: key drivers and market outlook for this week

This image is no longer relevant

In the coming days, volatility in the oil and gas markets may increase significantly, especially in light of expected economic data and potential statements from key policymakers. The focus should now be on support and resistance levels as the market is at a critical decision point.

Brent crude oil futures continue to consolidate within a tight range of $72–73.75 per barrel. Support at $70-70.7 remains key, preventing further declines, while the descending resistance level limits price action from the top. In these conditions, traders must navigate through a mix of conflicting factors.

This image is no longer relevant

A break below $70 could intensify bearish sentiment and lead to a test of $68 and lower. On the upside, the next target is $75, which would open the way to $78.

Fundamental drivers: positive factors and risks

Assessing the geopolitical situation remains a complex task. The likelihood of a ceasefire agreement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict appears to be delayed based on recent signals. This is a positive factor for the oil market, as continued tensions support a risk premium in prices.

Encouraging news has come from Asia: China's manufacturing PMI for February came in well above expectations. This reinforces hopes for stable demand from the world's largest energy importer.

However, the global economic outlook remains threatened by the possible resumption of trade wars initiated by Donald Trump. Such a scenario could slow global GDP growth, putting pressure on oil demand.

Sanctions against Iran and Russia have not yet had a significant impact on supply volumes to Asia. However, potential increases in restrictions on either country's shadow fleet could intensify competition for available vessels, which could impact supply logistics.

Gas: growth in question

Natural gas futures are in a bull market, but the current move is accompanied by a correction, the depth of which is difficult to gauge. Key levels:

  • Resistance: $3.887 – the zone of the descending trendline
  • Support: $3.567 – a potential level where demand could pick up

A break above the resistance level could resume the bullish trend, while a drop below the support level would open the path to $3.45 and lower.

This week's top events

  • March 4: US oil inventories data from API.
  • March 5: EIA statistics, the start of China's National People's Congress.
  • March 7: US labor market data, a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and Baker Hughes rig count.
Natalya Andreeva,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Trump's Tax Plan to Increase U.S. Deficit by Nearly $3.3 Trillion

According to a new assessment by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the Senate's latest version of President Donald Trump's tax and spending package would increase the U.S. deficit by nearly

Jakub Novak 12:35 2025-06-30 UTC+2

Are There Still Chances for Trade Deals?

The euro, the pound, and other risk-sensitive assets continue to rise against the weakening U.S. dollar, although the possibility of a rebound in the dollar—as well as the conclusion

Jakub Novak 12:31 2025-06-30 UTC+2

Bitcoin outshines competitors

Expectations vs. reality Cryptocurrency creators once envisioned a universe where countless tokens could compete for investors' money. In reality, aside from Bitcoin and a handful of digital assets, the rest

Marek Petkovich 12:15 2025-06-30 UTC+2

US stock market fed up with "smart money"

The end of June brought a spectacular rally for the S&P 500. Not only did the broad stock index hit a new all-time high for the first time since February

Marek Petkovich 11:15 2025-06-30 UTC+2

Markets End the First Summer Month on a Positive Note (with a Likely Continuation of #USDX Decline and EUR/USD Growth)

The ceasefire between Iran and Israel is providing significant support for the growth in demand for risk assets, and expectations of negotiations between contact groups starting this week are further

Pati Gani 10:04 2025-06-30 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 30? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are only a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Monday. Perhaps the most important is the final Q1 GDP report in the United Kingdom. Let us recall that the British

Paolo Greco 06:02 2025-06-30 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 30: Nonfarm Payrolls, Powell, and Unemployment

The GBP/USD currency pair rose by 300 pips over the past week and appears to be in no hurry to stop. Even on Friday, the price failed to initiate

Paolo Greco 03:37 2025-06-30 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – June 30: European Inflation and Another Round of Lagarde Speeches

The EUR/USD currency pair has been rising for five consecutive months. During this time, we've only seen a few minor downward corrections, each ending in another collapse of the U.S

Paolo Greco 03:37 2025-06-30 UTC+2

U.S. Dollar – Weekly Preview

The American news background will once again play a key role for the dollar and, therefore, for the market and the vast majority of instruments. This past week, only

Chin Zhao 00:34 2025-06-30 UTC+2

British Pound – Weekly Preview

The situation for the British pound in the market and news landscape is quite similar. For the pound, two rate cuts by the Bank of England in 2025 or zero

Chin Zhao 00:34 2025-06-30 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.