The first month of spring. Here is a comprehensive analysis of the options for the movement of the main currency instruments #USDX, EUR / USD, GBP / USD and USD / JPY - DAILY in March 2020
Minor operational scale (daily time frame)
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US dollar index
The movement of the #USDX dollar index in March 2020 will be determined by developing the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (97.15 - 97.65 - 98.10) of the Minuette operational scale forks. The details for working out the boundaries are shown in the animated chart.
In case of breakdown of the upper boundary of the ISL38.2 (resistance level of 98.10) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks, together with 1/2 Median Line Minuette (98.20) upward movement of the dollar index can be continued to the upper boundary of 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (98.60) and the control line UTL (99.00) of the Minor operational scale forks.
On the contrary, in case of breakdown of the lower boundary of the ISL61.8 (support level of 97.15) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks, it will lead to an option to continue the downward movement #USDX to the targets:
- final Schiff Line Minuette (96.50);
- local minimum 96.36 ;
- final line FSL (95.40) of the Minuette operational scale forks.
The marking up options for the #USDX movement in March 2020 is shown in the animated chart.
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Euro vs US dollar
The development of the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD in March 2020 will depend on the development and direction of the breakdown of the range :
- resistance level of 1.1175 - the initial line of SSL of the Minor operational scale forks;
- support level of 1.1090 - the upper boundary of the ISL61.8 equilibrium zone ofof the Minuette operational scale forks.
A return below the support level of 1.1090 to ISL61.8 Minuette will determine the development of the EUR / USD movement in the equilibrium zone (1.1090 - 1.1030 - 1.0970) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of reaching the boundaries of 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (1.0945 - 1.0900 - 1.0860).
Meanwhile, in the event of a breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1175 on the initial SSL line of the Minor operational scale forks, it will be possible to update the local maximum 1.1240 and the European currency will reach the final line FSL (1.1275) of the Minuette operational scale forks.
The details of the EUR / USD movement options in March 2020 are shown on the animated chart.
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Great Britain pound vs US dollar
In March 2020, the development of Her Majesty's GBP / USD currency movement will depend on the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of 1/2 Median Line channel (1.2625 - 1.2800 - 1.2980) of the Minuette operational scale forks. The detail of movement inside the channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette is presented on the animated chart.
The breakdown of the upper boundary (resistance level of 1.2980) of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks will lead to the development of the upward movement GBP / USD which may continue to 1/2 Median Line Minor (1.3160) with the prospect of reaching the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.3435) of the Minor operational scale forks.
Alternatively, in case of breakdown of the lower boundary (support level of 1.2625) of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel, then the downward movement of Her Majesty's currency will continue to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.2580 - 1.2350 - 1.2120) of the Minuette operational scale forks.
The details of the GBP / USD movement in March 2020 can be seen on the animated chart.
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US dollar vs Japanese yen
The development of the USD / JPY currency movement of the "country of the rising sun" in March 2020 will be determined by the development and the direction of the breakdown of the range :
- resistance level of 107.75 (upper boundary of the ISL38.2 of the Minuette operational scale forks);
- support level of 107.35 (lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel).
The breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (resistance level of 107.75) of the Minuette operational scale forks will direct the development of the currency of the country of the rising sun to the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (108.20 - 109.40 - 110.60) of the Minor operational scale forks.
On the contrary, in case of breakdown of the lower boundary (support level of 107.35) of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel, the downward movement of USD / JPY can be continued to the goals :
- initial SSL line (107.05) of the Minor operational scale forks;
- 1/2 Median Line Minuette (106.35);
- lower boundary of ISL61.8 (105.00) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks.
We look at the details of the USD / JPY movement in March 2020 on the animated chart.
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The review was compiled without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening trading sessions of major financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").
The formula for calculating the dollar index :
USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.
where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:
Euro - 57.6% ;
Yen - 13.6% ;
Pound sterling - 11.9% ;
Canadian dollar - 9.1%;
Swedish krona - 4.2%;
Swiss franc - 3.6%.
The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the starting date - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.
