Intermediate operational scale (Weekly)
The second half of 2020 - assumptions about the prospects for the movement in the weekly timeframe of the main currency instruments #USDX vs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY.
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US dollar index
The dollar index continues to remain in the 1/2 Median Line channel (100.70-98.00-95.30) of the Intermediate operational scale forks (Weekly) and further movement of #USDX (inside this channel) will depend on the direction of the range breakdown:
- final Shiff Line Minor (Daily) - resistance level 96.75
- SSL Minor (Daily) start line - support level 96.10
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The upward movement #USDX will take place in the event of a breakdown of the final Shiff Line Minor (resistance level 96.75) and the nearest targets of this movement will be the 1/2 Median Line Intermediate (98.00) and the upper border of the channel 1/2 Median Line Intermediate (100.70).
The downward movement of the dollar index can continue if a breakdown occurs in the initial line of SSL of the Minor operational scale forks (support level 96.10). In this case, it will be possible for the price of the instrument to reach the lower boundary of the channel 1/2 Median Line (95.30) of the Intermediate operational scale forks, and if a breakdown occurs of this support, then the continuation of the fall of #USDX to the level of 91.50 at the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minor operational scale fork will become relevant.
The layout of the #USDX movement options is shown on the animated chart.
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Euro vs US dollar
The movement of the single European currency EUR/USD in the second half of 2020 will be determined by how the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.1350-1.1060-1.0770) of the Minor operational scale forks (Daily) will be worked out.
The downward movement of the single European currency will be true if the price will remain below the resistance level at 1.1350 at the upper boundary ISL38.2 zone equilibrium of the Minor operational scale forks, and the first purpose of this motion is the median line Minor (1.1060). In the case of breakdown of where EUR/USD will continue the downward movement to the lower border ISL61.8 (1.0770) of this zone with the prospect of updating the local minimum 1.0636 and reaching the upper border of the channel 1/2 Median Line (1.0600) of the Intermediate operational scale forks (Weekly).
The upward movement of the EUR/USD can be continued in case of a breakdown of the top border ISL38.2 zone equilibrium fork operational scale Minor - the resistance level at 1.1350 and the nearest purposes of this movement will become - the ultimate Shiff Line Intermediate (1.1645) and the lower limit ISL38.2 (1.1900) of the Intermediate operational scale forks.
The EUR/USD movement options are shown on the animated chart.
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Great Britain pound vs US dollar
The movement of the currency of Her Majesty GBP/USD in the second half of 2020 will develop depending on the direction of the breakdown of the range:
- lower limit of ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minor operational scale fork (Daily) - resistance level 1.2650;
- initial SSL line of the Intermediate operational scale fork (Weekly) - support level 1.2530.
The downward motion of Her Majesty's currency will become relevant in case of the breakdown support level 1.2530 on the starting line SSL of the Intermediate operational scale fork and can be continued to the boundaries of the channel 1/2 Median Line (1.2260-1.2020-1.1800) of the Minor operational scale fork with the prospect of achieving the warning line LWL38.2 (1.1500) of the Intermediate operational scale fork.
The upward movement of GBP/USD will be possible in case of breakdown ISL38.2 Minor resistance level 1.2650 and will continue in the zone of equilibrium (1.2650-1.3000-1.3340) of the Minor operational scale fork (Daily), and if it happens the breakdown ISL61.8 Minor (1.3340), the further movement of this currency pair will be determined by the channel borders 1/2 Median Line (1.3130-1.3680-1.4220) of the Intermediate operational scale fork (Weekly).
Options for the movement of GBP/USD are shown on the animated chart.
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US dollar vs Japanese yen
The development of the movement of the "Land of the Rising Sun" currency USD/JPY in the second half of 2020 will depend on the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (109.50-108.00-106.70) of the Minor operational scale fork (Daily).
The upward movement of the USD/JPY may be developed after the breakdown of the median line Minor - resistance level of 108.00 - then it will be possible to achieve a price of the instrument is the upper boundary of the ISL38.2 (109.50) zone equilibrium fork operational scale Minor, and the ultimate Shiff Line Minor (110.00), and if you take place the breakdown of these two resistors (109.50 and 110.00), it will be the actual update of the local maximum 112.23 and achieving the ultimate line FSL Minor (114.00).
The downward movement of the currency "Land of the Rising Sun" will continue in case of breaking the lower border ISL61.8 zone equilibrium of the Minor operational scale fork (Daily) - support level 106.70, and will be sent to the borders of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minor (106.00-105.50-103.20) with a view to achieving 1/2 Median Line (102.30) of the Intermediate operational scale fork and update the local minimum 101.19.
We look at the GBP/USD movement options on the animated chart.
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The review is compiled without taking into account the news background, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers, and is not a guide to action (placing "sell" or "buy" orders).
Formula for calculating the dollar index:
USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.
where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of currencies in the basket:
Euro - 57.6 %;
Yen - 13.6 %;
Pound -1 1.9 %;
Canadian dollar - 9.1 %;
Swedish Krona - 4.2 %;
Swiss franc - 3.6 %.
The first coefficient in the formula brings the index value to 100 on the starting date - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.
