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11.03.2025 12:01 PM
EUR/USD. March 11. The European Union Prepares for a Trade War with the US
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On Monday, the EUR/USD pair traded sideways throughout the day, staying just below the 200.0% correction level at 1.0857. A confident breakout above this level would signal a continuation of the uptrend towards the next target at 1.0944. The price has already rebounded from 1.0857 several times, but none of these pullbacks have led to a significant decline. Bulls are not retreating from the market but are simply waiting for new catalysts to continue buying.

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The wave structure on the hourly chart has changed. The last completed downward wave broke the previous low, while the new upward wave has surpassed the previous peak. This confirms the presence of a bullish trend. However, the current growth is impulsive, driven primarily by fears of an economic slowdown in the US due to measures implemented by Donald Trump. This has been one of the key reasons behind the recent sharp decline in the US dollar.

Monday's fundamental backdrop was relatively weak. On one hand, German industrial production exceeded traders' expectations, but on the other, export volumes and the trade balance declined. As a result, bulls lacked strong reasons for further attacks. In two days, US tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will take effect, impacting the European Union as well. However, this is just the beginning. Tariffs on steel and aluminum will apply globally to all countries exporting metals to the US. Additionally, Trump is preparing specific tariffs for the EU, which have been widely discussed but have yet to be implemented. I believe these tariffs will eventually be introduced, as there are currently no official negotiations between Washington and Brussels. Moreover, negotiating in advance is not Trump's approach—he prefers to impose tariffs first and then, for example, demand that the US be given Greenland or significantly increase purchases of American goods.

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On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues its upward movement after breaking out of a horizontal range. The trend is now bullish, confirmed by the ascending trend channel. A sustained move above the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.0818 suggests further growth towards the next Fibonacci level at 76.4% (1.0969). However, a bearish divergence in the CCI indicator and an overbought RSI signal that the pair may be ready for a pullback. A close below 1.0818 would indicate a potential decline towards the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0696.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

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Over the past reporting week, professional traders opened 2,524 long contracts and closed 12,795 short contracts. The sentiment within the "Non-commercial" category remains bearish, but it has been weakening recently. The total number of long contracts held by speculators now stands at 185,000, while short contracts amount to 195,000.

For twenty consecutive weeks, large investors have been reducing their euro holdings, confirming a bearish trend without any assumptions. The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed continues to favor the US dollar due to the widening interest rate differential. Although the bearish advantage is weakening, it is still too early to declare the end of the downtrend. The number of long positions has been increasing for five weeks in a row, coinciding with the time since Donald Trump became president of the United States.

Economic Calendar for the US and the Eurozone:

US – JOLTS Job Openings (14:00 UTC).

The March 11 economic calendar contains only one secondary data release. Therefore, the fundamental background is expected to have minimal influence on market sentiment on Tuesday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Selling the pair may be considered if it closes below the 1.0781–1.0797 zone on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.0734 and 1.0622. Buying opportunities remain on the table, but I am cautious about the pair's strong, uninterrupted rally—it could be followed by an equally sharp decline.

Fibonacci retracement grids are drawn from 1.0529–1.0213 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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