empty
01.04.2025 03:58 PM
Bitcoin caught in bull trap

The bottom shows no strength, the top has no desire. Even the so-called "smart money" is not rushing to buy Bitcoin, citing a confluence of negative factors. Tepid trading activity, a tense macroeconomic backdrop, and a lack of upside momentum have created what the market calls a "bull trap". If big players are holding back, what can we expect from smaller market participants?

Crypto market volume trends

This image is no longer relevant

In the fourth quarter, Bitcoin lost around 10% of its value — not a terrible performance compared to broader crypto assets. Ethereum plunged 45%, and Coinbase shares fell 31%. This marked the worst performance since 2022, when the FTX collapse sent shockwaves through the entire digital asset industry.

Bitcoin has outperformed Ethereum and other competitors largely due to increased attention from the White House. Donald Trump has announced the creation of a strategic reserve, and his family is launching mining ventures. They are clearly betting on a BTC/USD rally, but it is too early to call. In the futures market, hedging is ramping up to protect against a drop below the psychologically crucial $80,000 level. Meanwhile, the spread between spot and derivatives has dipped into negative territory, signaling a bearish market tone.

BTC futures vs spot market premium

This image is no longer relevant

Persistent geopolitical instability, looming risks of a US stagflation or recession, and the potential escalation of trade tariffs are casting a shadow over BTC/USD. Bitcoin remains mired in consolidation, and even if it manages to break out, there is no guarantee that it will be to the upside.

Much depends on how equity markets respond to "America's Liberation Day," as Trump has dubbed April 2. Two scenarios are in play: either the White House enacts universal 20% tariffs, or it goes with so-called reciprocal tariffs on selected imports. The former could shock markets and trigger a sell-off in riskier assets. The latter could extend the S&P 500's recent rally and throw Bitcoin bulls a much-needed lifeline.

This image is no longer relevant

In short, the fate of Bitcoin — and that of other assets — remains in the hands of Donald Trump. How aggressive will he be with protectionism? Will he offer exemptions, sparing some countries from the tariff blacklist? The answers are just days away. "Liberation Day" is approaching.

Technically, on the daily BTC/USD chart, bulls are trying to form and activate a combination of reversal patterns — Anti-Turtles and 1-2-3. A successful test of the $84,800 resistance level would strengthen the bullish case and open the door to building long Bitcoin positions.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CAD pair is showing a modest recovery from levels below 1.3600, retracing most of the previous day's losses, supported by a rebound in the U.S. dollar. In addition, concerns

Irina Yanina 13:09 2025-06-13 UTC+2

AUD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The AUD/JPY pair has been under selling pressure for the third consecutive day, reaching an almost two-week low around 92.30 during Friday's Asian session. After a sharp drop, spot prices

Irina Yanina 12:53 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Israeli Missile Strike on Iran Will Crash Global Markets (I Expect Bitcoin and #NDX to Resume Their Decline After a Local Upward Correction)

As I anticipated, the lack of a broad positive outcome in negotiations between China and the U.S. and renewed inflationary pressure led to a sharp decline in demand for corporate

Pati Gani 10:10 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Greed Will Do the Market No Good

The less you know, the better you sleep. Encouraged by a 21% rally in the S&P 500 from its April lows, the crowd continues to buy the dip—completely unbothered

Marek Petkovich 09:35 2025-06-13 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 13? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Several macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Friday, but we doubt that the data will significantly impact traders today—especially today. As a reminder, Donald Trump intends to raise tariffs

Paolo Greco 07:16 2025-06-13 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 13: The Court Won't Stop Donald Trump!

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Thursday and nearly updated its three-year high. For most of the day, quotes hovered around the 1.36 level

Paolo Greco 03:41 2025-06-13 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – June 13: America's Economy Gets Lucky

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its strong upward movement throughout Thursday. Is anyone still puzzled as to why the U.S. dollar keeps falling? From our point of view, the reasons

Paolo Greco 03:41 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Trump Sends Out "Letters of Happiness"

It has been less than two weeks since Donald Trump raised import tariffs on steel and aluminum for all countries except the UK. While negotiations with the UK were deemed

Chin Zhao 00:21 2025-06-13 UTC+2

GBP/USD. A Weak Pound Stronger Than a Weak Greenback

Following weak UK labor market data, equally soft figures on British economic growth were released on Thursday. Almost all components of the report came out in the "red zone," increasing

Irina Manzenko 00:20 2025-06-13 UTC+2

The Dollar Flees the Battlefield

The old becomes new again. The word "recession" again trended in the Forex and other financial markets. May's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell short of Bloomberg analysts' forecasts. Following

Marek Petkovich 00:20 2025-06-13 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.