Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro
The first test of the 1.1372 price level in the second half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. Shortly afterward, the second test of 1.1372 coincided with the MACD returning from the oversold area, which enabled the implementation of Buy Scenario #2. However, after a 15-pip upward move, demand subsided.
The released U.S. labor market data and decent durable goods figures only slightly strengthened the U.S. dollar. Investors appeared to have already priced in this positive news, anticipating further steps from the Federal Reserve. The pair will continue to be influenced by global factors, including U.S. trade policy and the potential for a trade agreement with the EU—if it materializes at all.
It's worth noting that while the U.S. labor market remains resilient, it is still far from perfect. The unemployment rate remains relatively low, but there are signs of slowing job growth. This suggests that the Fed may not be able to act too aggressively moving forward, which limits the dollar's strengthening potential.
Given the lack of eurozone data in the first half of the day, EUR/USD retains its growth potential. The absence of macroeconomic data creates a vacuum in which market sentiment and speculation can play a decisive role. In this context, any positive news—even if not directly related to the eurozone economy—may trigger a wave of euro buying.
For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today at the entry point around 1.1355 (green line on the chart), with an upward target of 1.1395. At the 1.1395 mark, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 pip reversal from the entry level. Buying the euro in the first half of the day can be considered a continuation of the current trend.
Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1326 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and may lead to a market reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels, 1.1355 and 1.1395, is expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1326 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1292, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions (expecting a 20–25-pip move in the opposite direction). Downward pressure may return at any moment today.
Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1355 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and may lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels, 1.1326 and 1.1292, is expected.
What's on the Chart:
- The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
- The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
- The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
- The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
- The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.
Important Notes:
- Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
- Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.
