Analisis Forex & Kajian: 26.10.2022 - US premarket on October 26:...

26.10.2022 03:21 PM

US premarket on October 26: Microsoft Corp and Alphabet Inc reports reduce risk appetite

US stock index futures fell in morning trading as tech stocks declined in the premarket. This fact overshadowed a three-day bullish rally on Wall Street and raised doubts that the market had not bottomed out yet. Moreover, the stock market is likely to incur more significant losses than $5.5 trillion.

Nasdaq 100 futures dropped by 1.8% after weak quarterly reports from Microsoft Corp., Alphabet Inc. and Texas Instruments Inc. S&P 500 futures were down nearly 0.8%. Treasuries resumed gains and 10-year Bond yields dropped to nearly 4.07%.

This week, the rise in the stock market was accompanied by positive earnings reports from companies as well as speculation that the Federal Reserve might reduce the pace of rate hikes amid evident economic pressure. About 25% of S&P 500 companies reported their results for the third quarter. At the same time, over two-thirds of them exceeded analysts' estimates despite the failure of key tech companies. However, fears of a manufacturing slowdown, which would negatively impact corporate profits, continue to grow exponentially and are likely to peak in the coming months. This will limit the upside potential of stock markets and could lead to another sell-off.

Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said that US stocks are more likely to decline as the risky assets do not fully reflect the latest rise in real returns and the likelihood of a recession. In case of a severe economic downturn, analysts at Sachs Group Inc expect the S&P 500 Index to fall to $2,888, a drop of 25% from yesterday's close.

Meanwhile, the Stoxx Europe 600 index continues to fluctuate amid positive earnings of the largest companies including Barclays Plc, Deutsche Bank AG and Mercedes-Benz Group AG. However, the technology sector sank by more than 1%.

Risky assets are rising on the foreign exchange market. The British pound gained against the US dollar after the government announced that the long-awaited financial plan was postponed until November 2022. This is encouraging news as it will be more time to work out a big rescue plan for the UK economy and households. The euro also advanced against the dollar ahead of the European Central Bank meeting.

Stocks rose in China, Japan, and South Korea. China's central bank and currency regulator said that they would support healthy equity and bond markets and that the yuan would be mostly stable. These statements were positive for the Asian market.

As for the technical picture of the S&P500, the day started badly after yesterday's growth. Currently, the main target for buyers is to defend support at $3,808. As long as trading will be conducted above this level, further demand for risky assets is likely. It will also provide good chances for strengthening of the trading instrument and a breakout of $3,835. Only this scenario is probable for an upward correction to the resistance of $3,861. The most distant target is the area of $3,905. In case of downward movement, buyers should be active near $3,808 and $3,773. A breakout of these ranges will push the trading instrument to both $3,735 and $3,699 and give buyers an opportunity to update the support at $3,661.

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Stock Markets

Jakub Novak,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
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