Analisis Forex & Kajian: 21.12.2023 - Forecast for EUR/USD on...

21.12.2023 01:12 PM

Forecast for EUR/USD on December 21, 2021

The EUR/USD pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, consolidating below the corrective level of 61.8% (1.0960). Thus, the downward process may continue toward the next Fibonacci level of 50.0% (1.0862). I support the scenario of further decline in the pair, as, judging by the waves, the trend seems to be shifting towards the "bearish" side. However, a firm hold above the level of 1.0960 will indicate that bulls are not ready to retreat fully and may attempt to resume growth towards the level of 1.1035.

The wave situation is becoming clearer and more favorable. The last downward wave turned out to be relatively weak (compared to the previous upward wave), and the current upward wave has every chance of not surpassing the peak of the previous wave (from December 14). If this scenario unfolds, we will have the first sign of completing the "bullish" trend. In this case, a decline towards the level of 1.0862 should begin, which may only be the start of a prolonged "bearish" trend. This is the scenario I am currently counting on.

On Wednesday, there were a few interesting events in the European Union and the United States. The only U.S. report on the number of new home sales showed a value slightly higher than traders expected for November. However, this report is unimportant, and traders' reactions were practically nonexistent. Thus, this week, I can highlight only two events. The first one is the inflation report in the European Union, which showed a final decrease in November to 2.4% y/y, and the U.S. GDP report for the third quarter, which will be released today in the second half of the day.

As with European inflation, the report on economic growth in the U.S. may not cause a strong reaction. This is not the first estimate of the indicator for the third quarter, and traders are prepared to see +5.2% q/q. If today's report shows a higher or lower value, then bulls or bears will receive minor support. But overall, this week's information background is quite weak, with important reports coming only from the United Kingdom. By the end of the week, trader activity may be relatively low, but I still expect a decline in the pair toward the level of 1.0862. This target already looks quite attractive.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rose to the corrective level of 50.0% (1.0957). A firm consolidation of the pair's rate above this level allows counting on further growth towards the next Fibonacci level of 38.2% at 1.1032. Reconsolidation below 1.0957 will again favor the U.S. currency and a fall to the lower line of the ascending trend corridor, which still characterizes traders' sentiment as "bullish." I expect a significant decline in the euro only after consolidating below the ascending trend corridor. Still, even under the current circumstances, a decline towards the lower line of the corridor looks promising. There are no apparent divergences with any indicator today.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trader advice:

What advice can be given to traders today? The rise of the European currency is unlikely. The continuation of the "bullish" trend is also unlikely. The information background could be stronger; the economic events calendar for the EU and the U.S. is practically empty, and traders will find it difficult to find new reasons for buying. Thus, a resumption of the decline towards the level of 1.0862 is likely. A consolidation below the level of 1.0960 can be considered for selling the pair. I consider purchases today impractical and too risky."

Anda telah pun menyukai siaran hari ini

* Analisis pasaran yang disiarkan di sini adalah bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kesedaran anda, tetapi tidak untuk memberi arahan untuk membuat perdagangan.

Jika anda mempunyai sebarang soalan berkaitan kandungan, sila hubungi editorial-board@instaforex.com

Technical analysis

Samir Klishi,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
© 2007-2025

Lebih banyak artikel daripada pengarang ini

Langganan E-mel

EURUSD

Pilih carta masa

min

jam

hari

minggu

Mulakan dagangan

Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.

Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.

Artikel yang dicadangkan

EUR/USD. 6 Mei. Penurunan Telah Lakukan Segala Yang Terdaya

Analisis Teknikal Pergerakan Harga Harian Instrumen Komoditi Minyak Mentah, Selasa 6 Mei 2025.

Isyarat Dagangan untuk EUR/USD bagi 5-8 Mei, 2025: jual di bawah 1.1370 (200 EMA - 6/8 Murray)

Isyarat Dagangan EMAS (XAU/USD) untuk 5-8 Mei 2025: beli di atas $3,305 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)

EUR/USD. Keputusan Mesyuarat Fed Mungkin Menyebabkan Pasangan Ini Menurun

EUR/USD – 5 Mei: Pasaran Buruh A.S. Tidak Berputus Asa

Pasangan GBP/USD – 5 Mei: Trump Boleh Menaikkan Tarif ke atas China

Analisis Teknikal Pergerakan Harga Harian Instrumen Komoditi Emas, Isnin 5 Mei 2025.

Analisis Teknikal Pergerakan Harga Intraday bagi Pasangan Mata Wang Bersilang EUR/JPY, Isnin 05 Mei 2025.

Analisis Teknikal Pergerakan Harga Harian Indeks Nasdaq 100, Jumaat 02 Mei 2025.

Analisis terbaik