empty
28.03.2025 04:00 AM
EUR/USD Pair Overview – March 28: Donald Trump Loves Surprises

This image is no longer relevant

The EUR/USD currency pair maintained its downward bias on Thursday, although it traded higher throughout the day. Volatility remained low once again, indicating weak market activity. However, traders had enough reasons to be more active for the second consecutive day. On Wednesday, significant reports were published on UK inflation and U.S. durable goods orders, which were quite impactful. Yet volatility only reached 35 pips that day.

On Thursday, the situation in the forex market became even more interesting, as Donald Trump didn't wait for "America's Liberation Day" and imposed tariffs on all imported cars. The dollar, as expected, depreciated. But once again, there was no sense that the market was genuinely concerned. The market actively sold off the dollar for only three days in reaction to Trump's sanctions and tariffs. From March 3 to 5, the dollar lost 400 pips—accounting for most of the corrective upswing that has lasted nearly three months. Since then, we've seen no strong moves or steep dollar declines.

We still believe the current upward movement is a corrective trend, and the market is gradually showing signs that it's tired of Trump's antics. It now seems to react only to actual deterioration in conditions. Most experts believe that Trump's tariffs will not cause a severe economic downturn. Of course, this is debatable, as the tariffs are significant, and the retaliatory measures are equally strong. We believe the U.S. economy will slow considerably—but not enter a recession.

Even during ultra-high Federal Reserve interest rates, the U.S. economy avoided recession—it didn't even come close to one. Therefore, Trump's tariffs—meant to improve the economy in the medium term—shouldn't have serious consequences.

The real damage may come from other developments Trump seems to overlook. Across the globe, there are nearly open campaigns promoting a "Don't Buy American" stance. How else should Europeans respond when Trump wants to impose draconian tariffs on them? Or the Danes after he tried to take Greenland? Or are the Canadians already hit by tariffs and being "invited" to become part of America? Or the Chinese, now entering the second round of a full-scale trade war? Many people choose not to buy American products—even without being forced.

Naturally, not everyone, and not in every country, is affected by this, but it's still a significant blow to the economy. However, it's the only real blow. In all other respects, the U.S. economy and the Fed's monetary policy appear strong enough for the dollar to stop falling. The market has already priced in Trump's tariffs—so how much longer can the dollar keep falling based on this single factor?

This image is no longer relevant

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days (as of March 28) is 70 pips, which is considered "moderate." We expect the pair to trade between 1.0727 and 1.0867 on Friday. The long-term regression channel has turned upward, but the broader downtrend remains intact, as seen in higher timeframes. The CCI indicator has not recently entered overbought or oversold territory.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.0742

S2 – 1.0620

S3 – 1.0498

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.0864

R2 – 1.0986

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its weak downward correction. For the past few months, we've consistently forecast a medium-term decline in the euro, and nothing has changed in that outlook. The dollar still has no real reason for a medium-term fall apart from Donald Trump. Short positions remain far more appealing, with targets at 1.0315 and 1.0254, although it's difficult to say when this illogical upward movement will end. If you trade purely on technicals, long positions can be considered if the price moves above the moving average, targeting 1.0986.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

Paolo Greco,
انسٹافاریکس کا تجزیاتی ماہر
© 2007-2025
ٹائم فریم منتخب کریں
5
منٹ
15
منٹ
30
منٹ
1
گھنٹہ
4
گھنٹے
1
دن
1
ہفتہ
انسٹافاریکس کے ساتھ کرپٹو کرنسی کی معاملاتی تبدیلیوں سے کمائیں۔
میٹا ٹریڈر 4 ڈاؤن لوڈ کریں اور اپنی پہلی ٹریڈ کھولیں۔
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    مقابلہ میں شامل ہوں

تجویز کردہ مضامین

یو ایس ڈی / سی اے ڈی : تجزیہ اور پیشن گوئی

یو ایس ڈی / سی اے ڈی پئیر 1.3600 سے نیچے کی سطحوں سے معمولی بحالی کا مظاہرہ کر رہا ہے، پچھلے دن کے زیادہ تر نقصانات کو واپس

Irina Yanina 13:12 2025-06-13 UTC+2

اے یو ڈی / جے پی وائے تجزیہ اور پیشن گوئی

اے یو ڈی / جے پی وائے جو کہ مسلسل دن کے بیچ بیچ میں ہے، جمعے کو ایشیاء سی کے درمیان تقریباً دو ہفتے کی کم از کم 92.30

Irina Yanina 12:55 2025-06-13 UTC+2

مارکیٹ حقائق بیچتی ہے

مارکیٹ افواہوں پر بڑھتی ہے اور حقائق پر گرتی ہے۔ ایک طویل عرصے سے،ایس اینڈ پی 500 امریکی چین تجارتی معاہدے پر سرمایہ کاروں کے اعتماد

Marek Petkovich 18:46 2025-06-12 UTC+2

12 جون کو کن چیزوں پر توجہ دی جائے؟ نئے تاجروں کے لیے بنیادی واقعات کی خرابی۔

میکرو اکنامک رپورٹس کا تجزیہ: بڑی اقتصادی رپورٹس جمعرات کے لیے مقرر ہیں، لیکن صرف چند ہی واقعی اہم ہیں۔ نمایاں کرنے کے لیے اہم رپورٹیں برطانیہ

Paolo Greco 14:07 2025-06-12 UTC+2

برطانوی پاؤنڈ/امریکی ڈالر کا جائزہ - 12 جون: ٹرمپ اور فیڈ پالیسی کے خلاف احتجاج

برطانوی پاؤنڈ/امریکی ڈالر کرنسی جوڑی نے بدھ کو بہت سکون سے تجارت جاری رکھی۔ قدرتی طور پر، جب امریکی افراط زر کے اعداد و شمار جاری کیے گئے،

Paolo Greco 14:07 2025-06-12 UTC+2

یورو/امریکی ڈالر کا جائزہ - 12 جون: کیا سرنگ کے آخر میں روشنی ہے؟

یورو/امریکی ڈالر کرنسی کا جوڑا بدھ کے روز بہت سکون سے تجارت کرتا رہا۔ مارکیٹ نے امریکہ چین تجارتی مذاکرات کے حوالے سے بظاہر مثبت خبروں پر کوئی

Paolo Greco 14:06 2025-06-12 UTC+2

یو ایس ڈی / جے پی وائے : تجزیہ اور پیشن گوئی

اس مرحلے پر، جاپانی ین انٹرا ڈے کنسولیڈیشن رینج کے اندر تجارت جاری رکھے ہوئے ہے، جو گزشتہ روز امریکی ڈالر کے مقابلے میں دو ہفتے کی کم ترین

Irina Yanina 19:36 2025-06-11 UTC+2

ایکس اے یو / یو ایس ڈی : تجزیہ اور جائزہ

فی الحال، سونے کی قیمت ہفتہ وار حد کے اندر ہی محدود ہے۔ قیمتوں میں اضافے کی حمایت کرنے والے اہم عوامل میں امریکی وفاقی اپیل کورٹ کا صدر ڈونلڈ

Irina Yanina 19:32 2025-06-11 UTC+2

یورو / جی بی پی : تجزیہ اور پیشن گوئی

تاہم، اس وقت، اس میں ایک بنیادی پس منظر کے باوجود، جو اسپاٹ کی قیمتوں کے لیے کم سے کم مزاحمت کا راستہ بتاتا ہے، کے باوجود اس میں خریداری

Irina Yanina 17:32 2025-06-11 UTC+2

برطانوی پاؤنڈ/امریکی ڈالر کا جائزہ – 11 جون۔ افراط زر پر کیا اثر پڑے گا؟

منگل کے پہلے نصف میں برطانوی پاؤنڈ/امریکی ڈالر کی کرنسی کا جوڑا تیزی سے گرا لیکن دوسرے نصف میں اپنی اصل پوزیشن پر واپس چلا گیا۔ تاجروں

Paolo Greco 16:37 2025-06-11 UTC+2
ابھی فوری بات نہیں کرسکتے ؟
اپنا سوال پوچھیں بذریعہ چیٹ.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.