empty
16.11.2022 11:31 PM
Indian rupee: declining following GDP

The Indian rupee continues to weaken as demand from exporting companies pushes the dollar higher. The weakness in Asian equities and currencies has now spilled over into domestic markets.

Indian rupee: declining following GDP

This image is no longer relevant

Data released by India's statistics authority showed India's merchandise trade deficit widened to $26.91 billion in October. The drawdown was more than $1 billion in net revenue, compared to $25.71 billion in September.

India's merchandise exports fell by almost $6 billion to $29.78 billion from $35.45 billion in the previous month, while imports fell to $56.69 billion from $61.16 billion in the same period.

The reasons are not only global economic problems, but above all crop failure due to heavy rainfall during the harvest period. The crop failure reached domestic markets, affecting the cost of basic food products - flour, legumes. After grain, meat, eggs and milk also become more expensive. Basic foodstuffs form the basis of household expenditures in the country.

Amid the news, the rupee fell 0.25% to 81.2975 per dollar. The currency lost almost a percentage of its high of 80.51 on Monday, partly due to volatility in the Asian market.

The huge demand for cash dollars in both the spot and forward markets is spurring the fall. Of course, foreign banks also buy on behalf of their importing clients.

At the same time, the decline in USD/INR forward premiums made importers attractive to hedgers, which led to an increase in dollar outflows. The cost of hedging the 6-month dollar is down 25 basis points this week.

As a result, for the day the dollar index fell by 0.3% after the initial increase. There is hope that the currency will bounce back postmarket as US President Joe Biden reassured the international community by saying that the missile that caused the explosion in NATO member Poland may not have been fired from Russia.

However, the excitement peaked in the early Asian session. As a result, Asian equities and currencies remained volatile, with the Chinese yuan and equities down 0.5% each.

Concerns about a rise in COVID-19 cases in the major cities of Guangzhou, Beijing and Zhengzhou also played a role.

The recent turmoil in the currency markets has also left investors wondering which way the Indian currency will move. With the expected recession in developed markets hitting global trade, some believe the dollar will bounce back and put pressure on Asian currencies. This is a realistic option, at least during the early recession. The dollar rally is far from over, and it makes sense to keep the rupee forecast at 83.50 and 84-85 by the end of December and the end of March, respectively. At least it is not noticeable that the Federal Reserve will stop in the short term, so it is only natural to expect a resumption of the dollar rally.

Egor Danilov,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Q1 2025: Mercados registram a maior queda nas taxas desde 2022

S&P e Nasdaq registram o pior mês desde dezembro de 2022 A maior queda trimestral na taxa de juros: S&P desde o terceiro trimestre de 2022, Nasdaq no segundo trimestre

Thomas Frank 18:51 2025-04-01 UTC+2

Resumo de notícias do mercado dos EUA para 1 de abril

Os índices de ações dos EUA fecharam a sessão com resultados mistos: o S&P 500 subiu 0,55%, enquanto o Nasdaq 100 recuou 0,14%. Essa incerteza reflete as preocupações dos investidores

Ekaterina Kiseleva 18:44 2025-04-01 UTC+2

Ouro: O novo rei das crises? Melhor trimestre desde 1986 em meio à turbulência global

Nikkei cai 4%, Nasdaq Futures cai 1,4% Trump diz que as tarifas dos EUA serão aplicadas a todos os países O ouro tem o melhor trimestre desde 1986 Dólar caminha

Thomas Frank 18:24 2025-03-31 UTC+2

Resumo de notícias do mercado dos EUA para 31 de março

O mercado norte-americano iniciou a semana com uma liquidação generalizada, impulsionada pelo aumento das preocupações em torno das tarifas comerciais de retaliação e pela deterioração da confiança do consumidor

Irina Maksimova 15:38 2025-03-31 UTC+2

Ouro brilha na crise: melhor trimestre desde 1986 em meio à turbulência global

O Nikkei recua 4%, e os futuros da Nasdaq caem 1,4%. Trump sinaliza que as tarifas dos EUA abrangerão todos os países. O ouro tem seu melhor trimestre desde 1986

14:38 2025-03-31 UTC+2

Trump pressiona e o mercado de ações reage com uma queda

As ações do setor automotivo caem após o último golpe tarifário de Trump Advanced Micro Devices cai após rebaixamento de corretora Número de pedidos semanais de subsídio de desemprego chega

Thomas Frank 16:44 2025-03-28 UTC+2

Trump mexe os pauzinhos e o mercado de ações afunda em resposta

As ações do setor automotivo caem após a greve tarifária de Trump. A Advanced Micro Devices apresenta queda. Os pedidos de auxílio-desemprego aumentam para 224.000. O dólar se fortalece

15:52 2025-03-28 UTC+2

Resumo de notícias do mercado dos EUA para 28 de março

As tarifas sobre automóveis agitaram o mercado: as ações estão sob pressão, enquanto o ouro está ganhando. Os investidores estão se retirando do setor automotivo à medida que os temores

Irina Maksimova 14:00 2025-03-28 UTC+2

As apostas aumentam: GameStop aposta em criptomoedas, Trump aposta em tarifas

Trump deve anunciar tarifas sobre automóveis em breve, diz relatório Dollar Tree sobe com a venda do negócio Family Dollar GameStop sobe com aposta em Bitcoin e lucro maior

Thomas Frank 17:14 2025-03-27 UTC+2

Resumo de notícias do mercado dos EUA para 27 de março

O presidente Donald Trump impôs tarifas de 25% sobre os automóveis importados, causando um choque nos mercados financeiros. Como resultado, os índices S&P 500 e Nasdaq registraram grandes perdas

Ekaterina Kiseleva 15:04 2025-03-27 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.