empty
17.03.2025 06:34 PM
EUR/USD Analysis – March 17th

This image is no longer relevant

The 4-hour wave analysis for EUR/USD is at risk of transforming into a more complex structure. A new downward trend began on September 25, taking the form of a five-wave impulse structure. Two months ago, a bullish corrective phase started, which should consist of at least three waves. The first wave's structure was well-formed, leading me to expect the second wave to take a clear shape as well. However, its size has now grown so significantly that it threatens to alter the overall wave count.

From a fundamental perspective, economic data continues to favor sellers over buyers. Recent U.S. reports indicate that the economy is stable and does not show signs of significant slowdown that would cause concern. However, the situation in the U.S. economy could change drastically in 2025 due to Donald Trump's policies. The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates multiple times, while tariffs and retaliatory measures could harm economic growth.

Had it not been for recent developments, I would have expected a 90% probability of further euro depreciation. However, the situation remains uncertain.

The EUR/USD pair remained unchanged on Monday. The market appears to be focused on upcoming events that could significantly impact both the dollar and the euro.

A full-scale trade war between the European Union and the United States could begin at any moment, marking Trump's third official trade war. The first tariffs were imposed on Chinese imports, followed by Canadian imports. This is in addition to the global tariffs on steel and aluminum. However, Brussels has made it clear that it will not tolerate such broad sanctions. The EU immediately responded with €26 billion in tariffs on U.S. goods. Trump has promised to retaliate, and we now await further developments.

Luis de Guindos, Vice President of the ECB, stated yesterday that economic uncertainty is now even higher than during COVID. He noted that the new U.S. administration is uninterested in maintaining productive cooperation between different jurisdictions. According to de Guindos, Trump and his administration refuse to listen to their counterparts or consider the interests of other countries. This represents a major shift in global politics, which will inevitably lead to changes in the global economy and international order.

From my perspective, Trump's decisions are currently harming only the U.S. stock market and the U.S. dollar.

This image is no longer relevant

General Conclusions

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument remains in a downward trend, though it could shift to an uptrend in the near future. The second wave may already be complete, but any further rise in prices could transform the entire wave structure.

Since the wave structure is currently ambiguous, I cannot recommend selling EUR/USD with confidence. However, if the current wave count remains valid, these levels are highly attractive for selling.

Trump's policies could further weaken demand for the U.S. dollar, making the formation of a third bearish wave impossible.

On higher timeframes, the wave structure has turned impulsive, suggesting a new long-term bearish wave cycle. However, Trump's policy actions could disrupt this pattern entirely.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often change unexpectedly.
  2. If there is uncertainty in the market, it is better to stay out.
  3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Always use Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.
Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

NG 12 Feb. ¡Los toros mantienen el rumbo hacia un máximo de 4,31!

El marco temporal de cuatro horas muestra el trazado de una onda activa principal (Y), que tiene una forma interna compleja y es un doble zigzag de un nivel

Roman Onegin 07:26 2025-02-12 UTC+2

SP500 12 de febrero. ¡Después de la finalización de la segunda parte del impulso, el precio puede subir más activamente!

Lo más probable es que se esté formando una tendencia alcista mayor en el panorama global del SP500, cuya estructura es similar a la del impulso. Si nos fijamos

Roman Onegin 07:26 2025-02-12 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 7 de julio. ¿Dónde se encuentra la raíz de todos los problemas del dólar?

El conteo de ondas en el gráfico de 4 horas para el instrumento EUR/USD permanece sin cambios. Actualmente estamos observando la formación de la supuesta onda

Chin Zhao 15:58 2024-07-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 6 de julio. El destino complicado del dólar.

El conteo de ondas en el gráfico de 4 horas para el instrumento EUR/USD permanece sin cambios. Actualmente estamos observando la formación de la supuesta onda

Chin Zhao 15:57 2024-07-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 6 de julio. La libra quiere caer, pero no puede.

La estructura de ondas del instrumento GBP/USD sigue siendo bastante complicada y muy confusa. Alrededor del nivel de 1.2822, que corresponde al 23.6% de Fibonacci y está cerca del pico

Chin Zhao 15:57 2024-07-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 22 de junio. El mercado espera la primera bajada de los tipos de interés en agosto.

El patrón de onda para el instrumento GBP/USD sigue siendo bastante complicado y confuso. Un intento exitoso de romper el nivel de Fibonacci del 50,0% en abril indicó

Chin Zhao 13:12 2024-06-22 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 22 de junio. La Fed: No está lista para el aterrizaje.

En el gráfico de 4 horas, no hay cambios en la marca de la onda para el instrumento EUR/USD. En este momento, observamos la construcción de la esperada onda

Chin Zhao 10:51 2024-06-22 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 8 de junio. Los británicos retrocedieron, pero no se rindieron.

El patrón de onda para el instrumento GBP/USD sigue siendo bastante complicado. El intento exitoso de romper el nivel de Fibonacci del 50,0% en abril indicó que el mercado está

Chin Zhao 08:27 2024-06-09 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 8 de junio. El BCE confía en una mayor desaceleración de la inflación.

El patrón de onda del gráfico de 4 horas para el instrumento EUR/USD se mantiene sin cambios. En este momento, estamos observando la construcción de la onda esperada

Chin Zhao 08:26 2024-06-09 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Análisis del 2 de octubre. Las estadísticas europeas vuelven a decepcionar y el euro vuelve a caer

El análisis de ondas del gráfico de 4 horas para el par euro/dólar sigue siendo bastante claro. Durante el año pasado, solo hemos visto tres estructuras onduladas que se alternan

Chin Zhao 17:48 2023-10-02 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.